VBIT Hong Kong
BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief information officer Arthur Hayes delivered a keynote at TOKEN2049 Singapore, sharing his views on macroeconomic conditions and their effects on crypto markets.
His talk, Thoughts on Macroeconomic Current Events, explored the complexities of finance's future. He predicted a major market crash caused by Federal Reserve actions, followed by a new bull market.
On Wednesday, the Fed was preparing its first rate cut since COVID-19. Although global investors expected it, the move was anticipated to have far-reaching effects.
Hayes criticises the Fed's rate-cut decision
Hayes criticised cutting rates while government spending remained high and inflation stayed above target. Despite widespread hopes for the move, he argued it could trigger a crash within days of the rate adjustment, attributing this to a narrowing US–Japan interest-rate differential.
He then discussed asset performance under lower rates. He highlighted Ethereum (ETH), ENA, ETHFI and PENDLE as potential beneficiaries of falling Treasury yields.
He disclosed substantial positions in those assets, but none in ONDO. He said Maelstrom's portfolio strategy was aligned with a declining-rate environment and aimed to perform well in it.
Hayes responds to Ethereum sceptics and discusses its outlook
Hayes also challenged claims of weak Ethereum performance, describing it as an internet bond offering a 4% yield. He argued that a sharp decline in US Treasury yields could make Ethereum more attractive.
